REAL ESTATE NEWS: THE GREATER DEPRESSION OF 2020
The loft condo property market of Downtown L.A. has, for decades, attracted far more buyers than sellers. That has changed recently. Real estate professionals now report that the number of prospective buyers has dwindled down considerably over the past few years, culminating in a major collapse to nearly zero buyers since February. As more sellers find that they must sell in order to survive the Greater Depression of 2020, investors and loft lovers will come out to snap up the deals. #dtla
While Harvard Business Review recently put out an article entitled “The U.S. Is Not Headed Toward a New Great Depression,” the facts tell a different story. The article contradicts itself to the point of communicating entirely the opposite: It admits that virus “is driving a macroeconomic meltdown around the world.” Everyone agrees that there is a pandemic that is equal or larger than flu-like outbreaks of recent years, but Harvard fails to acknowledge the extreme panic and hysteria linked to pandemic fraud, waste, abuse and historic economic shutdown. Harvard admits that “heavy job losses will likely drive unemployment figures to levels not seen since the Great Depression,” but fails to acknowledge the fact that job loss speed is already much faster than that of the Great Depression. It fails to acknowledge that we’ve already experienced a much bigger and faster stock market crash than crash that precipitated the Great Depression. Harvard admits that government actions are “pushing deficits to levels last seen during World War II”. The article admits “fears and commentary that the crisis is spiraling into either a depression or a debt crisis.”
Discount real estate companies are dust. iBuyers are imploding.
The article asks, “Is it too soon for pessimism?” Well, for those who don’t know how to recognize patterns, it is likely too soon — until it’s too late. For the authority of Downtown residential real estate, actionable market projections are a part of what LA Loft Blog readers have been able to take to the bank for nearly 10 years. The data is in, the patterns are clear. The Greater Depression 2020 is visible to us. The only points to argue or ponder about are the details. By some metrics, a modern depression shall be worse, and in other effect, a 2020 depression shall be easier due to overall wealth, technology and other modern-day resources. We know that our current failing economy is already worse by several metrics. The LA Loft Blog analysis shows that the most radical economic actions in history have created an enormous stock market crash, unparalleled global paralysis, widespread business industries collapse, historic unemployment explosion and universal economic collapse of the likes never seen before by mankind. Real estate has already begun a slow, lengthy process of collapse, which shall proceed to substantial, painful levels more before the massive body that we call the real estate sector may bounce back up. Real estate is normally among the largest, most unyielding, thus slowest of sectors to crash and slowest to recover because the typical transaction takes from 45 days to 2 years from intent to completion. Because individual home sales are so slow to transact, industry contractions and expansions take an extra long time to play out.
The Harvard Business Reviews goes off on opinionated tangents while ignoring the cascading crises effect and consequences of pandemics, also ignoring our world history of offshoot crises caused by major economic shocks. The article ignores the root causes and ramifications of food shortages, poverty, starvation, corruption, crime and social disorder that have only just begun to reveal the first signs. The Harvard magazine not only ignores long-term effects of the most radical and extreme government fiscal policy in history, it speciously promotes even more extreme socialist style government meddling, pretending that the federal government can magically get away with infinite QE money printing without eventual runaway inflation or stagflation.
The ultimate ignorance comes from disregarding the massive destruction of American small business, the backbone of the middle class. Already under extreme pressure, today’s federal and state panic policy is actively wiping out the #1 key support for the vital middle class. This is a death knell. With this general decimation of small business that we are seeing, the middle class is toast. As for real estate, the medium price range middle class property market is the biggest loser.
Economist Nouriel Roubini has his own additional reasons why we’re entering into the Greater Depression, a slow-moving train wreck that will take more than five years to play out: Collapse in capital spending; Long-term negative supply shocks; ongoing covid-19 and other pandemics and panic; anti-globalist populism, which naturally leads to escalating trade wars and cyber warfare. Altogether, Roubini specifies 10 Deadly D’s that “Drive 2020s Depression: Debt, Demographics, Deflation, Debasement, Digital Disruption, De-globalization, Democracy Backlash, Duopolistic Strategic Rivalry, Digital/Tech Warfare, Deadly Disasters (Pandemics, GCC)”.
As a group, also individually, we must each personally acknowledge these major obstacles, for they carry equally gigantic opportunities: cost-cutting, re-structuring, launching new business models, streamlining government, empowering small business, medical breakthroughs, helping the poor, new media, new financial industries, digital explosion, new manufacturing industries, short selling, gold, blockchain cryptocurrencies, new security industries, new infrastructure and new real estate investment opportunities.
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Copyright © This free information provided courtesy L.A. Loft Blog and LAcondoInfo.com with information provided by Corey Chambers, Realty Source Inc, BRE 01889449 We are not associated with the homeowner’s association or developer. For more information, contact 213-880-9910 or visit LAcondoInfo.com Licensed in California. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. Properties subject to prior sale or rental. This is not a solicitation if buyer or seller is already under contract with another broker.
