Mortgage rates will tick higher but remain at historically low

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Many analysts weighed in regarding the “after-effects” of the first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade. At least initially, these predictions seem to be bearing out. For example, according to Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sean Becketti, interest rates should remain at “historically low levels” throughout 2016, in spite of whatever moves the Federal Reserve is expected to make. “We take the Fed at its word that monetary tightening in 2016 will be gradual, and we expect only a modest increase in longer-term rates,” Becketti said. “Mortgage rates will tick higher but remain at historically low levels in 2016.”

Yes, we experienced the first increase in the prime rate of banks in almost a decade. But with regard to long-term rates, these rates have barely moved in the weeks after the Fed’s action. The rate on the 10-year Treasury note averaged 2.26 in November. On January 5, the rate was 2.25. Of course, world events have intervened to help lower rates as well. Keep in mind that if the Fed continues to raise short-term rates in 2016, it is expected that long-term rates will eventually drift upwards. This would include an increase in rates on home loans. 

However, though many are expecting more increases, intervening events such as world conflicts may very well tie the hands of the Fed with regard to their ability to move as quickly as some are predicting. Domestically, the most recent employment report released Friday is a good indicator of future activity absent of such world influences. The increase of jobs of _____________ was __________________ and it will help _______________________. The message? Though rates are low right now, those who wait too long to purchase a home may be paying a higher price for that home and higher financing rates as well

Rates on home loans were mixed this past week, with 30 year fixed rates below 4.0% once again. Freddie Mac announced that, for the week ending January 7, 30-year fixed rates fell to 3.97% from 4.01% the week before. The average for 15-year loans increased slightly to 3.26%. The average for five-year adjustables rose one tick to 3.09%. A year ago, 30-year fixed rates were at 3.73%, lower than today’s levels. “Concerns about overseas economic developments have dominated financial markets to start the year. U.S. Treasury bond yields fell amidst a global equity selloff and flight to safety. In response, the 30-year mortgage rate dipped 4 basis points to 3.97 percent.” Note: As of January 1, Freddie Mac is no longer providing survey data for 1-year adjustables. Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Provided by Katharine Dizon of The PNC Financial Services Group